Junior QB Anthony Gordon of Terra Nova and his teammates may meet their match as a high-scoring offense in this week’s game at Menlo School. Photo: Harold Abend.
It’s easy to pick winners in high school football. Just a tiny bit of homework and almost anyone can hit 70 percent.
But what about trying to pick upsets? We’ll move into the another week of a new feature by taking a look at several games from around the state in which a higher ranked team or favored team is picked to take a loss. Every team we are pointing at in this post has to be at least on the bubble in the various CIF state bowl game divisions.
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Here are this week’s Cal-Hi Sports Upset Alerts:
Menlo School (Atherton) over Terra Nova (Pacifica)
The Tigers will head to Atherton for a Friday afternoon game at 6-0. They are on the bubble for the CIF D1 North bowl game rankings and are No. 17 overall in the Cal-Hi Sports Bay Area Top 25. Both teams like to throw it with Menlo’s Jack Heneghan at 26 TD passes and counting while Terra Nova junior Anthony Gordon has tossed 18. Terra Nova’s two main receivers, Jaylen Jones and Domenic Ortisi, may be too much for the Knights, but we think their experience of playing a big school in Texas and going against the speed of Oakland McClymonds (Menlo won that game 47-40) may help them overcome that. Menlo’s loss in Texas was 84-49 to San Angelo Central, which is admittedly pretty bad. San Angelo Central, however, is currently 7-1 and has wins over big school Texas powers such as Abilene and Permian of Odessa. Yes, that is the same Odessa Permian of Friday Night Lights fame.
St. Joseph (Santa Maria) over Atascadero
We might be a little crazy on this one since St. Joseph recently suffered back-to-back shutout losses. However, the Knights (5-2) just halted a five-game win streak by Paso Robles with a 17-10 overtime win and they have a win over Palma of Salinas. St. Joseph QB Curry Parham also is very hard to stop. In the win over Paso, he passed for 280 yards and one TD and rushed for 104 yards. Atascadero also is 5-2, but its losses are to Clovis North and St. Bonaventure, which is why coach Vic Cooper’s team is No. 3 in the CIFSS Northern Division and is on the bubble for the CIF D2 South rankings. Atascadero has a versatile QB of its own in Robbie Berwick (the basketball standout) and features RB Izaiah Cooks, who has rushed for nearly 1,000 yards.
Sutter over Enterprise (Redding)
Both teams enter this matchup on Friday night with lengthy winning streaks as the Huskies have won six straight and are No. 10 in our D3 North bowl game rankings while the Hornets have yet to lose this season and are No. 3 in our D2 North division. We think this is one road game that Enterprise may not escape and may be due to go down. With nearly identical numbers on the season, the Huskies have scored just four points less than the Hornets while allowing just three more over seven games. Ryan Reynolds’ Huskies also showed last season they can play against the bigger schools as they went on the road and knocked off the Hornets 34-27. Senior Alex Ingram has rushed for 780 yards and has scored six touchdowns so far this season for Sutter.
Big Bear (Big Bear Lake) over Yucca Valley
Yucca Valley is currently undefeated and up to No. 10 in our D3 South rankings while Big Bear has lost two games and is on the outside looking in to get on that bubble . The Bears’ two losses this season have come against teams that are ranked in the top 10 of our D4 South rankings — by 10 at Rio Hondo Prep of Arcadia and by five points at home to Kern Valley of Lake Isabella. Yucca Valley has played just three times on the road so far and in two of those games it was a one-score margin of victory. This should be their toughest road game yet. The Bears won last season at Yucca Valley 24-10 and with the home field advantage we give them the upset nod this week in a key game that could decided the De Anza League championship.
Last week’s top upsets
1. Bakersfield Christian 47, Wasco 20
2. Concord 30, Northgate (Walnut Creek) 28
3. Calaveras (San Andreas) 21, Amador (Sutter Creek) 15
Upset Alerts So Far This Season: 5-7
Note: Pick your own upset alerts in the comments section below. Anybody for St. Francis of Mountain View to beat Mitty? And would that even be an upset? An upset alert contest also may be coming soon.
Mark Tennis is the co-founder and publisher of CalHiSports.com. He can be reached at markjtennis@gmail.com. Don’t forget to follow him on Twitter: @CalHiSports
6 Comments
Granada over Foothill?
Danville San Ramon Valley over California would be a mild upset, particularly it being in Grizzlies field in San Ramon…this one will be won in trenches…who do you like??
Have to agree with you about St. Joe and Big Bear, especially Big Bear since they’re playing at about 6800 ft elevation.
Strongly disagree about Sutter. Sutter does not have near the horses of Enterprise, whom I think will play in the CIF D3 North Regional this year.(Unless Serra of San Mateo some how plays in their CCS enrollment division playoffs instead of the CCS Open). Also, the Butte View is no way near the magnitude of the Eastern League. Enterprise would have to really screw up to lose that game.
Coach Sweeney seldom has lost 2 games in a row due to mistakes or game prep, which I think was the case in Foothill’s 7-24 loss to California(I was at that game).
Short of real screwy officiaitng (which has been known to happen in the EBAL) I don’t see Granada pulling that one off.
San Ramon vs. California is to close of one tocallexcepthat Cal has homefield advantage(and their field has lousy lights). Although neither team is known for their defenses, SR isn’t too bad at stopping the run, and Cal is primarily a ground’n poundteam. Contrary to some media input, Cameron Owen is a good passer and if SR loads up the box, he could clobber the Wolves with curl, drag route, and skinny post completions all night. On offense,SR can really light up the scoreboard with the running of QB Matt (who also has a strong arm and can throw)Winaker, as well as RB Marcus de la Pena and his running threat.
The Fresno Central Grizzlies had a bad start to the season, butheyseemto be getting it together now. With their several D1 prospects and homefield advantage, I think they’ll take it to Clovis North tonight with a close win.
TinyTim
I could see the loser of tonight’s St. Francis-Mitty game perhaps not making it into the CCS Open Division and then winning a CCS divisional title and thus getting eligible for the division that Enterprise is in. Will that be enough to deny a possible unbeaten Enterprise team? Strength of schedule might say yes and a computer might say yes, but humans on a committee voting and my guess is no. Unless something very strange happens, I see no way that Serra or the Bells lose enough WCAL games down the stretch to fall out of the CCS Open Division.
I’m happy to report that Atascadero busted the upset alert and smoked St. Joseph!
I put the question mark on the Granada/Foothill game because Foothill has had two weeks to prepare and they also have superior skill players. It remains to be seen if Granada’s physical edge can carry them to victory. I totally agree on Cal High’s lights, one of the few “two standard” fields I have ever seen. I disagree on why Cal beat Foothill. I see the reason why Cal won as simply a matchup thing. Cal is far more physical than Foothill but I do give Foothill credit for being scrappy. The score could have been far worse if Foothill would have given up and they didn’t. Another thing is that Cal has always been able to put pressure on Kearns and not allow him to get comfortable in the pocket. The one play they did give him time was the 85 yard TD pass from Kearns to Holland.