CIF Regional Bowl Game Projections

Mission Viejo head coach Chad Johnson (left) raises CIF D1-AA state title trophy after win last season over De La Salle. The Diablos can’t repeat in that division, but have a chance in the Open Division. At right, the plaque goes up for Mater Dei of Santa Ana after winning 2023 Open Division championship. Photos: Mark Tennis.

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Before going through all of the possible matchups, there are several major, important reminders for all to consider. We need to make them every year since new people undoubtedly are looking at it for the first time.

First, there are always upsets in section playoffs in which the top seeded team in a bracket is knocked off in a section final or earlier. Each team listed in these projections is either the highest seeded team remaining in that bracket or it’s the team with the highest MaxPreps/CalPreps computer ranking.

For teams that are ranked in our own Cal-Hi Sports State TOP 50 or have been in our medium/small schools state rankings we are also going to tend to list those teams in the same order as those rankings and not the computer. There are no medium/small schools rankings this week. We’ll return to those for the weeks leading into the regional games, then the state finals and then there will be final medium/small plus our final five division format that goes back to 1975.

Second, teams can opt out of participating in the CIF regional/state championships. There haven’t been any in a division higher than D4 but there have been in the lower divisions, especially small schools from rural Northern California. Associate Executive Director Brian Seymour of the CIF (who has run state football events since 2018) told us on Wednesday that no schools have opted out of the regional playoffs from any of the CIF sections that started section playoffs last week. He hadn’t heard of any yet this week from the other sections and that has to happen by the end of this week.

The CIF has a lot of flexibility in moving teams from the CIF Central Section to the north or south brackets. It has historically been the case in the regional football games for schools in the Fresno area of the section to be in the north while those from the Bakersfield area have been in the south. This year, there also is a new CIF Central Section champion that will be on the board from its D1-A bracket. There will now be seven Central Section champions instead of six, which means the probability of five from the section going to the south so that there would be an equal number of teams in the north and south. In the past, the CIF has had figure out awarding byes in the regional finals. Seymour mentioned on Wednesday that with no opt outs expected that no byes this year also are expected.

Travel is a big priority for the CIF in some of the matchups and they do tend to not want to have teams that have already played each other playing again in a regional matchup. There also is a preference for teams from the same section not playing each other, but that is unavoidable in the south where there are 14 teams from the Southern Section. In some cases, teams from the same section playing each other become obvious and besides sometimes it’s a case in which local bragging rights will mean a good attendance number. The CIF usually doesn’t admit that more dollars coming in from a bigger gate is a factor in some of these decisions, but it just has to be a factor and we believe it has been in the past.

Each CIF section provides its own list of teams to the CIF after its section finals are complete and in a recommended order of placement. The CIF doesn’t have to go by that order, but in most cases it does. The section commissioners already have been talking to Seymour about its various teams and they will have gone over a lot of the sticking points before the commissioners even meet up on that Sunday morning to make the final selections.

“As some scenarios end up not happening, we just continue to go down the list and we’ll talk more and more after each week,” Seymour said of those discussions. “By the end, the hardest part for us is finding locations for these games.”

We hope every team listed below ends up on the board and good luck to all of them in the upcoming weekend.

CIF state championship games on Dec. 13-14 will be played at Saddleback College (Mission Viejo), Veterans Stadium (Long Beach) and Fullerton Union High School District Stadium. Exact dates, times and locations will be revealed on Sunday, Dec. 8 after all of the regional winners are decided. Last season, the Open, D1AA, D1A, D2AA and D3AA championship games were all held at Saddleback College.

OPEN DIVISION
Mater Dei of Santa Ana (CIFSS D1) 9-0 vs.
De La Salle of Concord (NCS Open) 10-0

Comments: Remember, there is no regional game leading up to the Open Division. It’s the top team from the north vs the top team from the north and that’s it. The defending CIF Open champs from last year at Mater Dei have been chugging along in recent weeks looking unbeatable. Ranked No. 1 in the nation as well, the Monarchs so far have stayed on task under head coach Raul Lara. De La Salle figures to get a huge test in two weeks from Pittsburg in the CIF North Coast Section Open Division final, but has not lost to an NCS team since 1991. Obviously, the Spartans are going to be projected to win out once again, although the Pirates have the experience of playing St. John Bosco earlier this season and have the talent across the board to get a win at the end this time.

Cameron Purnell of San Diego Lincoln is shown not long after he scored on a pick six in game vs Grant of Sacramento. Photo: Mark Tennis.

Folsom (Sac-Joaquin Sec D1) 8-1* vs. Pittsburg (NCS D1) 9-1
Lincoln of San Diego (SD Open) 8-2 vs. Murrieta Valley of Murrieta (CIFSS D2) 9-2

Comments: We would expect that the losing team of the DLS-Pitt game would then drop down to the NCS D1 championship and then defeat probably San Ramon Valley of Danville to earn a NorCal bid. We also would choose that team ahead of Clovis East (top seed still going currently in the Central Section) for the NorCal D1-AA game. We’ve seen them all and that would the correct placement. The CIF also probably shouldn’t put a Clovis team that high after last year when an unbeaten Clovis North lost 40-0 in the D1AA NorCal final to De La Salle. Folsom topped Pitt last year in the CIF NorCal D1-A game. Both teams are better than last season. If Pitt were to pull off the upset of De La Salle, the CIF would be put into the position of choosing either the Pirates or Folsom for the Open Division. From a player personnel standpoint, Folsom would be perhaps the better option, especially the thought of highly regarded junior QB Ryder Lyons trying to make plays against the Mater Dei defense and besides Pitt already has been down to SoCal and lost 35-14 to St. John Bosco. That would force a Pitt-DLS rematch for a NorCal title, however, and we think the CIF and NCS would not be too interested in that. In that case, just send Pitt down there to get whacked in the Open with Folsom and DLS then playing each other. In the south, in the last few years, it’s almost been automatic for the CIF San Diego Open champion to play the CIFSS D2 champion. There’s nothing to suggest that isn’t going to happen again. Newbury Park is in the mix for the CIFSS D2 title and we’re pretty sure quarterback fans from across the nation would flock to a possible state final between the Panthers (junior Brady Smigiel) and Folsom (Lyons).

DIVISION 1-A

Clovis East of Clovis (Central Sec D1AA) 11-0 vs. St. Ignatius of San Francisco (CCS Open) 8-2
Simi Valley (CIFSS D3) 10-1 vs. Granite Hills of El Cajon (SD D1) 8-2

Comments: Clovis East emerged as the front-runner to win its section title with Tri-River Athletic Conference wins over both Central (Fresno) and Clovis North. All four of this week’s semifinalists in the new eight-team top bracket in the section (it was 16 before) are from the TRAC. We are listing SI from the CCS Open as the top seed, but No. 2 St. Francis (Mountain View) had a win over the Wildcats when they played earlier this season. The Lancers just lost to Riordan (SI won over the Crusaders earlier as well) and therefore fell into a co-championship for the West Catholic Athletic League with the Wildcats. Down south, Granite Hills is not the top seed for the San Diego D1 bracket, but should be based on having a win over Mission Hills of San Marcos (which the section placed in its Open Division). San Marcos (only loss to Mission Hills) is the top seed. Simi Valley is the top seed in the CIFSS D3 bracket and won its first round playoff game over Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks, 47-45. There are a lot of teams in that bracket that certainly can win it all.

DIVISION 2-AA

St. Mary’s of Stockton (SJS D2) 8-2 vs. Archbishop Riordan of San Francisco (CCS D1) 6-4
St. Bonaventure of Ventura (SS D4) 7-4 vs Narbonne of Harbor City (LA City Open) 4-2*

Comments: Narbonne is a real wild card for the CIF down in the south. That’s the team that had to take four forfeit wins in the Marine League as those four schools refused to play due to concerns about its transfer players. The Gauchos are not being handed over a section title, so what to do with them if they do win out as expected. On one hand, before all the forfeits, Narbonne had a big loss to Los Alamitos (but that team is in the CIFSS D2 playoffs). In its last game, the team defeated Cathedral of Los Angeles (which just lost 35-20 to Bonita of La Verne in the CIFSS D3 playoffs). Based on the players they have (including Oklahoma-bound QB Jaden O’Neal), we think the Gauchos should be in D2-AA opposite St. Bonaventure or whichever teams wins in the CIFSS for D4. The Seraphs (CIFSS D3 champs last season) also have teams like Long Beach Poly and Pacifica of Oxnard (playing each other this week) to deal with. In the north, we currently rank St. Mary’s ahead of others in the SJS D2 playoffs based on only losing to De La Salle 38-35. Rocklin (defending champ) is the top seed and Grant of Sacramento (beat Rocklin in a NorCal playoff game last season) both could certainly win out in that bracket as well. Since Riordan just beat St. Francis, we also have projected that the Crusaders would play the Lancers again for the CCS D1 title after SF loses to St. Ignatius in the Open final. The bottom line is that it would seem that any two of those three schools could be the CCS Open or CCS D1 champion. Serra of San Mateo may get a crack at beating two of those teams it has lost to earlier as well. No one should discount that from happening.

DIVISION 2-A

Twelve Bridges of Lincoln (SJS D4) 10-0 vs
Wilcox of Santa Clara (CCS D2) 8-2
Palos Verdes of PV Estates (SS D5) 6-5 vs
Bakersfield Christian (Central Sec D2) 10-1

Comments: Twelve Bridges has a much higher computer ranking than projected SJS D3 champ and top seed Oakdale and it’s not even that far behind Riordan. Due to that, we’re putting the Raging Rhinos (top seed in SJS D4) higher on our board. Wilcox just had a win over Los Gatos in its league, but in the CCS pairings Los Gatos is higher and up in D1. The Chargers being in D2 just makes them more of a favorite. In the south, we are ranking Palos Verdes (has a win over Leuzinger) higher than top seed Huntington Beach out of the CIFSS D5 playoffs. The Sea Kings did have to go to overtime, however, to win their first playoff game last week vs previously unbeaten Brea Olinda. Bakersfield Christian is the top seed for Central Sec D2 and we put the Eagles higher on our board than Central Sec D1A top seed Bakersfield High for having a head-to-head win over the Drillers. That was an overtime time, however, and there may be some impetus for a regional rematch. For now, we kept them apart.

Players from McClymonds of Oakland show off after team won its fourth CIF state title in 2021. The Warriors are expected to be in another NorCal regional final on Dec. 6 or Dec. 7. Photo: Twitter.com.

Comments: The CIF would have a big problem if it went only by computer rankings and stuck Mack way down in D4 or D5. The Warriors remember only lost by one point to Riordan and their other losses are to St. Francis and San Ramon Valley. We put them opposite Liberty out of the NCS, which also would be a matchup of two East Bay teams. Liberty earned the top seed in its bracket mainly for having a 34-28 win over an Amador Valley (Pleasanton) team that some of those in the media there think will win after its 54-48 overtime win last week over D1 NCS team California of San Ramon. Bakersfield may have a very tough game this week vs Arroyo Grande, but we’re listing the Drillers for now in these projections. Muir’s only losses are to Charter Oak and Bonita (from higher CIFSS divisions) and if the Mustangs win out their computer ranking also may get closer to the eventual third team coming out of the Central Section from D1A or D2.

DIVISION 3-A
Bradshaw Christian of Sacramento (SJS D6) 10-0 vs. Oakdale (SJS D3) 7-3
Helix of La Mesa (SD D2) 4-6 vs West of Torrance (SS D7) 9-2

Comments: For longtime fans in the SJS, Bradshaw vs Oakdale seems odd, but if the Pride were to win the D6 title (which includes Sonora) and Sonora has a win over Oakdale, it makes sense. Plus, Bradshaw Christian has a higher computer ranking than Oakdale (not much but it does). The San Diego D2 playoffs not only includes Helix (an SD Section Open Division team from last year) but also Mater Dei Catholic of Chula Vista (has won two CIF state titles and in higher divisions than 3-A). Both have six losses, but have played tough schedules. Neither one is the top seed as University City (9-1) took that spot. West of Torrance is the top seed in its bracket and won its first playoff game, 24-20, over West Valley of Hemet. Many in that CIFSS bracket will be watching to see how small school Rio Hondo Prep does. The Kares could play West Torrance in the semifinals, but has to get past M.L. King of Riverside this week in the quarterfinals.

DIVISION 4-AA
Pleasant Valley of Chico (Northern Sec D2) 7-3 vs Hughson (SJS D5) 10-0
Porterville (Central Sec D3) 8-2 vs. Highland of Lancaster (CIFSS D9) 7-4

Comments: More sections than ever go straight by computer rankings to determine all playoff matchups, but what happens when there’s a championship team from a lower division that goes into the regionals that has passed a team in the computer rankings from a higher division. Highland, the top seed and still going in CIFSS D9, does indeed now have a higher computer ranking than Beckman of Irvine, the top seed in CIFSS D8. We also like the geographic proximity of Porterville to Lancaster. Three of Highland’s losses have come to Liberty of Bakersfield, Mission Viejo and Oak Hills of Hesperia. In the north, Pleasant Valley is a big favorite to win another Northern Section title. The Vikings’ losses are to Cardinal Newman, Central Catholic (Modesto) and Spanish Springs (Nev.). They already have a 35-7 win over second-seed Foothill (Palo Cedro). Hughson is currently leading in a small school bracket that also includes Sutter, Lathrop and Casa Roble.

Acalanes head coach Floyd Burnsed poses with his players after CIF D3-AA state championship game. Photo: Mark Tennis.

Comments: Carmel didn’t have to move up beyond D3 in the CCS due to a bylaw in that section that limits teams from what is classified as a B League from being up there with teams from the WCAL. That’s not the case for other schools in the Monterey/Santa Cruz area like Salinas High and Soquel, who are in CCS Open/D1. This is a great move because the Padres wouldn’t have a chance of winning a state title if they had top WCAL schools to deal with. Instead, they will be in a division in which they could go all the way. Acalanes was the CIF D3-AA state champ last season and has a new group of players. Results indicate that the Dons are not nearly as good this season, but the new method of the NCS seeding teams helps them out. They didn’t have to move up to NCS Open/D1 or D2 (unlike Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman, San Marin and others). In the south, Beckman and nearby Segerstrom of Santa Ana (8-3) both look strong for CIFSS D8, but Beckman is going on our board as the top seed. Shafter, meanwhile, has had injury issues this season, but still grabbed the top spot in a Central Section bracket that also includes unbeaten Coalinga (11-0). This school has been in the north before (just two years ago lost in a muddy state final in Orland), but likely may have to go to the south this time if it wins in its section.

DIVISION 5-AA
St. Vincent de Paul of Petaluma (NCS D5) 9-1 vs Lassen of Susanville (Northern Sec D3) 7-3
Holtville (SD D3) 11-0 vs St. Anthony of Long Beach (CIFSS D10) 6-5

Comments: Head coach Trent Herzog’s squad at St. Vincent de Paul won the D6-AA state title last year and we have the Mustangs moving up this season. They have to be in front of NCS D4 top seed Ukiah due to a head-to-head win. It seems there also are some safeguards in place in the NCS about moving up a team like the Mustangs too high. Lassen is a school given its location that we could see opting out of the regional playoffs. We’ll see. The Grizzlies do have a computer ranking pretty close to St. Vincent de Paul’s. In the south, we have unbeaten Holtville on our list but the top seed from the SD D3 bracket is 7-3 Central of El Centro. St. Anthony had a recent 10-7 loss to Salesian of Los Angeles, but that team is D8. The Saints are top seed in D10.

DIVISION 5-A
Winters (Northern Sec D4) 9-0* vs. Ukiah (NCS D4) 7-3
Los Amigos of Fountain Valley (CIFSS D11) 11-0 vs
Bishop (Central Sec D5) 9-2

Comments: We’ve been checking out Winters every week since a 77-0 win over Rio Vista in its second game. The Warriors followed up with a 27-6 win vs Gridley (higher division in the section) and have won by shutouts in their last four games with a forfeit to Willows thrown in there. Ukiah having a loss to St. Vincent de Paul probably would drop it a spot or two on the CIF board, but if a team like Salesian of Richmond were to win the title in the NCS D5 then that could flip. In the south, Los Amigos would now be our top projected team in the CIFSS D11 after top seeds Don Lugo of Chino Hills and Santa Fe of Santa Fe Springs both lost last week. Bishop is a team that has had a bye in these regional games based on its remote location, but without any opt outs that won’t be possible this time. Some team is going to have to go up there or the Broncos are going to be hitting the road. We also always look for the possibility of two unbeaten teams perhaps playing each other for a state title and Los Amigos vs Winters would work.

QB Tanner Pidgeon is shown during a game last season for Ferndale. Photo: humboldtsports.com.

Comments: The top seed for the SD D4 bracket is Ramona at just 2-8 and for now we just aren’t putting in a 2-8 team in our projections. El Cap isn’t far behind in computer rankings and as a school has some CIF state finals experience. Mary Star’s only losses are to St. Genevieve (Panorama City) and St. Monica (Santa Monica), which are both in higher CIFSS divisions. In the north, Arcata was 9-0 until last weekend when the Tigers fell to Ferndale, 27-21. They had a win over Ferndale earlier in the season and also are in a higher NCS division than the Wildcats. We’re assuming the NCS would put its D6 champ ahead of D7 even though those two teams have split. Summerville, which has just a one-point loss to Calaveras of San Andreas and had a big 28-7 win two weeks ago vs Linden, is a big favorite in that SJS D7 bracket.

DIVISION 6-A
Ferndale (NCS D7) 9-1 vs. Piedmont Hills of San Jose) (CCS D5) 8-2
Kennedy of Granada Hills (LA City D1) 9-2 vs.
Gahr of Cerritos (CIFSS D13) 6-5

Comments: As mentioned before, Ferndale has a split with NCS D6 top seed Arcata. The Wildcats also won the CIF D7-AA state championship last season. Still, they aren’t the top seed for NCS D7 as Moreau Catholic of Hayward took that spot on Sunday. We’re obviously going with a state champ until it is eliminated. Piedmont Hills is playing to send out retiring head coach Matt Kiesle on a spectacular high. The Pirates are top seed in a CCS division that Santa Teresa of San Jose captured last season. In the south, while Kennedy is the team we like most (just in front of top seed Eagle Rock) in the second-highest division of the L.A. City Section, its computer ranking is so low that it’s going to be very hard for the CIF to put that second L.A. City team any higher than opposite the CIFSS D12 or D13 team. Top seed Gahr in the CIFSS D13 playoffs bounced back from a 36-0 league loss to Paramount with a 41-14 win last week in the first round over La Puente.

DIVISION 7-AA
South San Francisco (CCS D5) 7-2* vs. Lincoln of San Francisco (SF Sec) 7-1
Vista (SD D5) 5-5 vs. Arleta (LA City D2) 7-4

Comments: Putting Lincoln opposite South City if both teams win out as top seeds makes a ton of sense. South City, which won a CCS title last year and then lost to Colusa in the D6-A regional final, will have to deal with 10-0 Gunn of Palo Alto in its section playoff. Lincoln only beat Balboa 14-13 last week so nothing is certain there, either. In the south, we can see 4-6 El Camino Real of Woodland Hills going all the way in L.A. City D2, but Arleta is the top seed. Vista in D5 seems odd since we go back to covering the Panthers when they were among the top programs in the state, but that’s where they are and they are a top seed.

DIVISION 7-A
Minarets of O’Neals (Central Sec D6) 9-2 vs Biggs (Northern Sec D5) 7-3
Taft of Woodland Hills (LA City D3) 3-8 vs Nordhoff of Ojai (CIFSS D14) 8-3

Comments: As we’ve said before, building these projections from the bottom up also can be as easy as the top. These four schools to us fall into place quite easily, especially if one puts Minarets in the north instead of the south, which is what we did. Among the top seeds in the CIFSS, LA City & San Diego playoffs, Taft and Nordhoff by a wide margin have the two lowest computer rankings.

Mark Tennis is the co-founder and publisher of CalHiSports.com. He can be reached at markjtennis@gmail.com. Don’t forget to follow Mark on the Cal-Hi Sports Twitter handle: @CalHiSports